Breakout Lookout | Real College Basketball

RealCollegeBasketball.com

Written by MVP

Sunday, 26 July 2009 01:11

A breakout player is a player who improves dramatically from one year to the next. In the collegiate level, this is usually players who were average or maybe didn't even play the year before, and then are really good players the next year, or it could be just a good player breaking out into a great one. Analysts are able to try to predict which players could breakout by looking at some signs that the player showed in years past, or maybe looking at great athletic ability, or maybe some players get an opportunity to take a big role due to the departure of teammates. There are a number of ways that we can predict a breakout player, but obviously, in predicting the future, you will make mistakes, but hopefully you are right more than you are wrong.

One example of a breakout player from last year is Ohio State's Evan Turner. He didn't contribute too much during his Freshman year, but showed some potential both offensively and defensively. Then, last year, his Sophomore year, he broke out and was the star of the team and the only consistently good player. Some stats that improved from his Freshman year to Sophomore year were his scoring (8.5 to 17.3 PPG), rebounding (4.4 to 7.1 RPG), assists (2.6 to 4.0 APG), FG% (.470 to .503), FT% (.699 to .788) and 3P% (.333 to .440 (though he doesn't shoot many threes)). He is staying at Ohio State for his Junior year, and there is a very good chance that he is able to improve his stock up to the top 10.

Obviously, many players do improve. But only the ones who improve significantly will be considered the breakout players. Here are some players that could breakout during the 09-10 season:

Solomon Alabi, Florida State Seminoles, Sophomore - The Florida State Seminoles lost G Toney Douglas to the NBA, so Solomon will be getting a much bigger role with the team. He is already one of the best defensive players in the NCAA and he is so long and athletic, with a great ability to block shots (2.1 BPG last season). His offensive game is poor, as he doesn't have much of a jump shot, but his FG% and FT% improved a lot from his first year to second year (he was a Freshman for both of those seasons because he received a redshirt since he was injured most of his first year). He works extremely hard, so his offensive game should continue to improve. If he can breakout this season, like most experts expect him to, there is a good chance that he will be a lottery draft pick in 2010.

Paul George, Fresno State Bulldogs, Sophomore - Paul was one of the best Freshman NCAA players last year but, at the same time, one of the least known players. Maybe it was because he wasn't too highly recruited, or maybe it was just because he went to a smaller school, Fresno State. Either way, the kid showed a ton of talent last year. He's a 6'7" G/F who can score (14.3 PPG), rebound (6.2 RPG), shoot (.447 3-point %), and defend. His upside is incredible, but the only thing that slightly held him back really was that he didn't have enough strength and was underweight compared to most players at his position (185 lbs.). But he is a gym rat who and if he's able to come back with an extra 15-20 lbs. of strength, he can really improve upon his already very good numbers and become a potential top 10 pick in the 2010 NBA Draft.

Devin Ebanks, West Virginia Mountaineers, Sophomore - Ebanks is a 6'9" long SF with a natural feel for the game. At West Virginia, he has a great opportunity to be the star of the team next year, as there isn't really another star on the team and he can get all the minutes that he needs. There are not many players out there that are as long or athletic as he is. He is a natural scorer with a good mid-range game, and is great in the open court, and can rebound the ball well. He really started to "get it" towards the end of his Freshman year (last year). Possibly his biggest weakness is that, similar to Paul George, he isn't too strong, but he is also a hard worker who should be able to come into next season much stronger and with a more polished game. He should be able to breakout and is a potential 2010 lottery pick.

Larry Sanders, Virginia Commonwealth Rams, Junior - Larry showed tremendous potential in several games last season including a 19 point, 16 rebound performance vs. Delaware, and an 18 point, 20 board performance vs. George Mason. As good of a point guard that Eric Maynor was for Virginia Commonwealth, Eric was clearly the star of the team, so now that he is in the NBA, that should give Sanders a good opportunity to take another step forward with his game, and this is a great chance for him to breakout into a star. He is a great shot blocker (2.7 BPG), good post player, and becoming a great defensive player. Larry started playing organized basketball just over 4 years ago, when he was a Junior in High School, and has been improving a lot each year, next year should be his biggest year of improvement yet due to the great opportunity that exists at VCU.

Ed Davis, North Carolina Tar Heels, Sophomore - Ed is probably the most likely player on this list to breakout next season. As a Freshman, Ed had a limited role with the team, coming off the bench. But it was clear how productive he could be when given minutes, and how effective he is. Many mock drafts project him as a top 5 pick in the 2010 draft, and it is clear why. Ed is extremely talented, very good in the post, great rebounder, great scorer, and very long. With Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, Wayne Ellington, and Danny Green all in the NBA now, this is a golden opportunity for Davis to be the star of the team. He will get minutes and he will improve over the off-season. There is a very good chance that Ed will breakout into a star next season and be a top 5 pick.

Stanley Robinson, Connecticut Huskies, Senior - It's not often that you see Seniors breakout, but Stanley "Sticks" Robinson could be an exception. Stanley is extremely athletic, a great defensive player, has a good mid-range shot, and is a great dunker. Consistency has always been his biggest issue, but towards the end of the year, he started to play much better on a consistent basis. During the last 6 games of the season, Stanley averaged 17 points and 9.3 rebounds per game! With UConn's top 3 scoring options from last year now in the NBA, in Hasheem Thabeet, AJ Price, and Jeff Adrien, Robinson should be receiving a bigger role in the offense, and if he keeps his consistency up, I can see him breakout into a very good player, and average close to what he did the last 6 games of the season.

Kemba Walker, Connecticut Huskies, Sophomore - Similar to Stanley, with Hasheem, AJ, and Jeff all in the NBA, this opens a great opportunity for Kemba to breakout. Kemba was a very highly recruited PG who showed some flashes of excellence last year. He has a very high ceiling, is very athletic, has a lot of speed, a nice shooting touch, is a very good defensive player, a great leaper, and can lead a team. Like many Freshman, consistency was an issue for him, but that is usually just a phase that Freshman go through in their transition from High School to College competition.

Rakim Sanders, Boston College Eagles, Junior - Rakim is one of the premier athletes in the NCAA. He's strong, physical, and has had 10 games where he scored 19 or more points. With Tyrese Rice graduating, Rakim has a big opportunity to take over the star role for the team. Consistency is a slight issue for him, but he became more and more consistent as the season went on.

Dexter Pittman, Texas Longhorns, Senior - Pittman is the other Senior that I have on this list, Stanley Robinson being the other. Dexter has shown signs of being able to be a good player, particularly his 25 point performance vs Missouri, and he is quick, and has a decent shooting touch. His biggest problem has been his weight, as Dexter at times has trouble running up and down the floor, and can't jump too high for rebounds. However, he has been working on losing weight, as he lost 70 pounds since his Freshman season, but he still has more to lose.

William Buford, Ohio State Buckeyes, Sophomore - William is a great offensive player who is just waiting to breakout. Time is the only factor here. He's a very good three-point shooter, and can also drive to the hole. He is also very long and a good defender. Ohio State needs someone else to step their game up, they cannot just rely on Evan Turner, and Buford is the most likely for the job. It's obvious that he has hit the weight room since high school, but he could still use a bit more strength. His upside is great and if he is able to break out this year, he could be a potential lottery draft pick.

Sylven Landesberg, Virginia Cavaliers, Sophomore - Sylven was a Freshman last year that really flew under the radar. He was one of the best Freshman last year, in a class where many of the Freshman were disappointing. Sylven averaged 16.6 points, 2.8 assists, and 6 rebounds per game for the Virginia Cavaliers. It is hard to think that the kid can still 'breakout' according to my definition of the player needing to improve dramatically, but I really do think he has the potential to do so. He is such a great, pure scorer, great driver, good shooter, good ball handler, strong, high basketball IQ... I really do see him as a guy that can average 20 PPG next year, especially on a team like Virginia, because they will run the offense through him. I feel he has a chance to be a top 20 pick in this years draft.

Greg Monroe, Georgetown Hoyas, Sophomore - Similar to Sylven, Greg was a Freshman who had a great season, but did not get too much publicity. He wasn't too heavily recruited coming out of High School, but he has been one of the best players from that class. He averaged 12.7 points, 6.5 rebounds, and a great (for a big man) 2.5 assists per game. He's a great athlete, long, great ball handler, quick, has a high basketball IQ, and is a phenomenal offensive player, as he can score from anywhere and pass very well. He has a great set of post moves, can drive very well, and a very good jump shot, even a Tim Duncan-esque backboard shot. Greg is a gym rat and already took two steps forward from what he was in High School during his Freshman season, and I am expecting him to take another two steps forward during his Sophomore season. Greg can be a top 5 pick in this years draft.

Real College Basketball

Login Form

Main Menu

Sponsors

Players

ADVERTISEMENT

Latest News

Popular of Late

Quote